// Copyright (c) 2009-2010 Satoshi Nakamoto // Copyright (c) 2009-2016 The Bitcoin Core developers // Distributed under the MIT software license, see the accompanying // file COPYING or http://www.opensource.org/licenses/mit-license.php. #include "policy/fees.h" #include "policy/policy.h" #include "amount.h" #include "primitives/transaction.h" #include "random.h" #include "streams.h" #include "txmempool.h" #include "util.h" void TxConfirmStats::Initialize(std::vector& defaultBuckets, unsigned int maxConfirms, double _decay) { decay = _decay; for (unsigned int i = 0; i < defaultBuckets.size(); i++) { buckets.push_back(defaultBuckets[i]); bucketMap[defaultBuckets[i]] = i; } confAvg.resize(maxConfirms); curBlockConf.resize(maxConfirms); unconfTxs.resize(maxConfirms); for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxConfirms; i++) { confAvg[i].resize(buckets.size()); curBlockConf[i].resize(buckets.size()); unconfTxs[i].resize(buckets.size()); } oldUnconfTxs.resize(buckets.size()); curBlockTxCt.resize(buckets.size()); txCtAvg.resize(buckets.size()); curBlockVal.resize(buckets.size()); avg.resize(buckets.size()); } // Zero out the data for the current block void TxConfirmStats::ClearCurrent(unsigned int nBlockHeight) { for (unsigned int j = 0; j < buckets.size(); j++) { oldUnconfTxs[j] += unconfTxs[nBlockHeight%unconfTxs.size()][j]; unconfTxs[nBlockHeight%unconfTxs.size()][j] = 0; for (unsigned int i = 0; i < curBlockConf.size(); i++) curBlockConf[i][j] = 0; curBlockTxCt[j] = 0; curBlockVal[j] = 0; } } void TxConfirmStats::Record(int blocksToConfirm, double val) { // blocksToConfirm is 1-based if (blocksToConfirm < 1) return; unsigned int bucketindex = bucketMap.lower_bound(val)->second; for (size_t i = blocksToConfirm; i <= curBlockConf.size(); i++) { curBlockConf[i - 1][bucketindex]++; } curBlockTxCt[bucketindex]++; curBlockVal[bucketindex] += val; } void TxConfirmStats::UpdateMovingAverages() { for (unsigned int j = 0; j < buckets.size(); j++) { for (unsigned int i = 0; i < confAvg.size(); i++) confAvg[i][j] = confAvg[i][j] * decay + curBlockConf[i][j]; avg[j] = avg[j] * decay + curBlockVal[j]; txCtAvg[j] = txCtAvg[j] * decay + curBlockTxCt[j]; } } // returns -1 on error conditions double TxConfirmStats::EstimateMedianVal(int confTarget, double sufficientTxVal, double successBreakPoint, bool requireGreater, unsigned int nBlockHeight) { // Counters for a bucket (or range of buckets) double nConf = 0; // Number of tx's confirmed within the confTarget double totalNum = 0; // Total number of tx's that were ever confirmed int extraNum = 0; // Number of tx's still in mempool for confTarget or longer int maxbucketindex = buckets.size() - 1; // requireGreater means we are looking for the lowest feerate such that all higher // values pass, so we start at maxbucketindex (highest feerate) and look at successively // smaller buckets until we reach failure. Otherwise, we are looking for the highest // feerate such that all lower values fail, and we go in the opposite direction. unsigned int startbucket = requireGreater ? maxbucketindex : 0; int step = requireGreater ? -1 : 1; // We'll combine buckets until we have enough samples. // The near and far variables will define the range we've combined // The best variables are the last range we saw which still had a high // enough confirmation rate to count as success. // The cur variables are the current range we're counting. unsigned int curNearBucket = startbucket; unsigned int bestNearBucket = startbucket; unsigned int curFarBucket = startbucket; unsigned int bestFarBucket = startbucket; bool foundAnswer = false; unsigned int bins = unconfTxs.size(); // Start counting from highest(default) or lowest feerate transactions for (int bucket = startbucket; bucket >= 0 && bucket <= maxbucketindex; bucket += step) { curFarBucket = bucket; nConf += confAvg[confTarget - 1][bucket]; totalNum += txCtAvg[bucket]; for (unsigned int confct = confTarget; confct < GetMaxConfirms(); confct++) extraNum += unconfTxs[(nBlockHeight - confct)%bins][bucket]; extraNum += oldUnconfTxs[bucket]; // If we have enough transaction data points in this range of buckets, // we can test for success // (Only count the confirmed data points, so that each confirmation count // will be looking at the same amount of data and same bucket breaks) if (totalNum >= sufficientTxVal / (1 - decay)) { double curPct = nConf / (totalNum + extraNum); // Check to see if we are no longer getting confirmed at the success rate if (requireGreater && curPct < successBreakPoint) break; if (!requireGreater && curPct > successBreakPoint) break; // Otherwise update the cumulative stats, and the bucket variables // and reset the counters else { foundAnswer = true; nConf = 0; totalNum = 0; extraNum = 0; bestNearBucket = curNearBucket; bestFarBucket = curFarBucket; curNearBucket = bucket + step; } } } double median = -1; double txSum = 0; // Calculate the "average" feerate of the best bucket range that met success conditions // Find the bucket with the median transaction and then report the average feerate from that bucket // This is a compromise between finding the median which we can't since we don't save all tx's // and reporting the average which is less accurate unsigned int minBucket = bestNearBucket < bestFarBucket ? bestNearBucket : bestFarBucket; unsigned int maxBucket = bestNearBucket > bestFarBucket ? bestNearBucket : bestFarBucket; for (unsigned int j = minBucket; j <= maxBucket; j++) { txSum += txCtAvg[j]; } if (foundAnswer && txSum != 0) { txSum = txSum / 2; for (unsigned int j = minBucket; j <= maxBucket; j++) { if (txCtAvg[j] < txSum) txSum -= txCtAvg[j]; else { // we're in the right bucket median = avg[j] / txCtAvg[j]; break; } } } LogPrint("estimatefee", "%3d: For conf success %s %4.2f need feerate %s: %12.5g from buckets %8g - %8g Cur Bucket stats %6.2f%% %8.1f/(%.1f+%d mempool)\n", confTarget, requireGreater ? ">" : "<", successBreakPoint, requireGreater ? ">" : "<", median, buckets[minBucket], buckets[maxBucket], 100 * nConf / (totalNum + extraNum), nConf, totalNum, extraNum); return median; } void TxConfirmStats::Write(CAutoFile& fileout) { fileout << decay; fileout << buckets; fileout << avg; fileout << txCtAvg; fileout << confAvg; } void TxConfirmStats::Read(CAutoFile& filein) { // Read data file into temporary variables and do some very basic sanity checking std::vector fileBuckets; std::vector fileAvg; std::vector > fileConfAvg; std::vector fileTxCtAvg; double fileDecay; size_t maxConfirms; size_t numBuckets; filein >> fileDecay; if (fileDecay <= 0 || fileDecay >= 1) throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Decay must be between 0 and 1 (non-inclusive)"); filein >> fileBuckets; numBuckets = fileBuckets.size(); if (numBuckets <= 1 || numBuckets > 1000) throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must have between 2 and 1000 feerate buckets"); filein >> fileAvg; if (fileAvg.size() != numBuckets) throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in feerate average bucket count"); filein >> fileTxCtAvg; if (fileTxCtAvg.size() != numBuckets) throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in tx count bucket count"); filein >> fileConfAvg; maxConfirms = fileConfAvg.size(); if (maxConfirms <= 0 || maxConfirms > 6 * 24 * 7) // one week throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must maintain estimates for between 1 and 1008 (one week) confirms"); for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxConfirms; i++) { if (fileConfAvg[i].size() != numBuckets) throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in feerate conf average bucket count"); } // Now that we've processed the entire feerate estimate data file and not // thrown any errors, we can copy it to our data structures decay = fileDecay; buckets = fileBuckets; avg = fileAvg; confAvg = fileConfAvg; txCtAvg = fileTxCtAvg; bucketMap.clear(); // Resize the current block variables which aren't stored in the data file // to match the number of confirms and buckets curBlockConf.resize(maxConfirms); for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxConfirms; i++) { curBlockConf[i].resize(buckets.size()); } curBlockTxCt.resize(buckets.size()); curBlockVal.resize(buckets.size()); unconfTxs.resize(maxConfirms); for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxConfirms; i++) { unconfTxs[i].resize(buckets.size()); } oldUnconfTxs.resize(buckets.size()); for (unsigned int i = 0; i < buckets.size(); i++) bucketMap[buckets[i]] = i; LogPrint("estimatefee", "Reading estimates: %u buckets counting confirms up to %u blocks\n", numBuckets, maxConfirms); } unsigned int TxConfirmStats::NewTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, double val) { unsigned int bucketindex = bucketMap.lower_bound(val)->second; unsigned int blockIndex = nBlockHeight % unconfTxs.size(); unconfTxs[blockIndex][bucketindex]++; return bucketindex; } void TxConfirmStats::removeTx(unsigned int entryHeight, unsigned int nBestSeenHeight, unsigned int bucketindex) { //nBestSeenHeight is not updated yet for the new block int blocksAgo = nBestSeenHeight - entryHeight; if (nBestSeenHeight == 0) // the BlockPolicyEstimator hasn't seen any blocks yet blocksAgo = 0; if (blocksAgo < 0) { LogPrint("estimatefee", "Blockpolicy error, blocks ago is negative for mempool tx\n"); return; //This can't happen because we call this with our best seen height, no entries can have higher } if (blocksAgo >= (int)unconfTxs.size()) { if (oldUnconfTxs[bucketindex] > 0) oldUnconfTxs[bucketindex]--; else LogPrint("estimatefee", "Blockpolicy error, mempool tx removed from >25 blocks,bucketIndex=%u already\n", bucketindex); } else { unsigned int blockIndex = entryHeight % unconfTxs.size(); if (unconfTxs[blockIndex][bucketindex] > 0) unconfTxs[blockIndex][bucketindex]--; else LogPrint("estimatefee", "Blockpolicy error, mempool tx removed from blockIndex=%u,bucketIndex=%u already\n", blockIndex, bucketindex); } } bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::removeTx(uint256 hash) { std::map::iterator pos = mapMemPoolTxs.find(hash); if (pos != mapMemPoolTxs.end()) { feeStats.removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex); mapMemPoolTxs.erase(hash); return true; } else { return false; } } CBlockPolicyEstimator::CBlockPolicyEstimator(const CFeeRate& _minRelayFee) : nBestSeenHeight(0) { static_assert(MIN_FEERATE > 0, "Min feerate must be nonzero"); minTrackedFee = _minRelayFee < CFeeRate(MIN_FEERATE) ? CFeeRate(MIN_FEERATE) : _minRelayFee; std::vector vfeelist; for (double bucketBoundary = minTrackedFee.GetFeePerK(); bucketBoundary <= MAX_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_SPACING) { vfeelist.push_back(bucketBoundary); } vfeelist.push_back(INF_FEERATE); feeStats.Initialize(vfeelist, MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, DEFAULT_DECAY); } void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processTransaction(const CTxMemPoolEntry& entry, bool fCurrentEstimate) { unsigned int txHeight = entry.GetHeight(); uint256 hash = entry.GetTx().GetHash(); if (mapMemPoolTxs.count(hash)) { LogPrint("estimatefee", "Blockpolicy error mempool tx %s already being tracked\n", hash.ToString().c_str()); return; } if (txHeight < nBestSeenHeight) { // Ignore side chains and re-orgs; assuming they are random they don't // affect the estimate. We'll potentially double count transactions in 1-block reorgs. return; } // Only want to be updating estimates when our blockchain is synced, // otherwise we'll miscalculate how many blocks its taking to get included. if (!fCurrentEstimate) return; // Feerates are stored and reported as BTC-per-kb: CFeeRate feeRate(entry.GetFee(), entry.GetTxSize()); mapMemPoolTxs[hash].blockHeight = txHeight; mapMemPoolTxs[hash].bucketIndex = feeStats.NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK()); } void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlockTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, const CTxMemPoolEntry& entry) { if (!removeTx(entry.GetTx().GetHash())) { // This transaction wasn't being tracked for fee estimation return; } // How many blocks did it take for miners to include this transaction? // blocksToConfirm is 1-based, so a transaction included in the earliest // possible block has confirmation count of 1 int blocksToConfirm = nBlockHeight - entry.GetHeight(); if (blocksToConfirm <= 0) { // This can't happen because we don't process transactions from a block with a height // lower than our greatest seen height LogPrint("estimatefee", "Blockpolicy error Transaction had negative blocksToConfirm\n"); return; } // Feerates are stored and reported as BTC-per-kb: CFeeRate feeRate(entry.GetFee(), entry.GetTxSize()); feeStats.Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK()); } void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlock(unsigned int nBlockHeight, std::vector& entries, bool fCurrentEstimate) { if (nBlockHeight <= nBestSeenHeight) { // Ignore side chains and re-orgs; assuming they are random // they don't affect the estimate. // And if an attacker can re-org the chain at will, then // you've got much bigger problems than "attacker can influence // transaction fees." return; } // Only want to be updating estimates when our blockchain is synced, // otherwise we'll miscalculate how many blocks its taking to get included. if (!fCurrentEstimate) return; // Must update nBestSeenHeight in sync with ClearCurrent so that // calls to removeTx (via processBlockTx) correctly calculate age // of unconfirmed txs to remove from tracking. nBestSeenHeight = nBlockHeight; // Clear the current block state and update unconfirmed circular buffer feeStats.ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight); // Repopulate the current block states for (unsigned int i = 0; i < entries.size(); i++) processBlockTx(nBlockHeight, entries[i]); // Update all exponential averages with the current block state feeStats.UpdateMovingAverages(); LogPrint("estimatefee", "Blockpolicy after updating estimates for %u confirmed entries, new mempool map size %u\n", entries.size(), mapMemPoolTxs.size()); } CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateFee(int confTarget) { // Return failure if trying to analyze a target we're not tracking // It's not possible to get reasonable estimates for confTarget of 1 if (confTarget <= 1 || (unsigned int)confTarget > feeStats.GetMaxConfirms()) return CFeeRate(0); double median = feeStats.EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, MIN_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight); if (median < 0) return CFeeRate(0); return CFeeRate(median); } CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool) { if (answerFoundAtTarget) *answerFoundAtTarget = confTarget; // Return failure if trying to analyze a target we're not tracking if (confTarget <= 0 || (unsigned int)confTarget > feeStats.GetMaxConfirms()) return CFeeRate(0); // It's not possible to get reasonable estimates for confTarget of 1 if (confTarget == 1) confTarget = 2; double median = -1; while (median < 0 && (unsigned int)confTarget <= feeStats.GetMaxConfirms()) { median = feeStats.EstimateMedianVal(confTarget++, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, MIN_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight); } if (answerFoundAtTarget) *answerFoundAtTarget = confTarget - 1; // If mempool is limiting txs , return at least the min feerate from the mempool CAmount minPoolFee = pool.GetMinFee(GetArg("-maxmempool", DEFAULT_MAX_MEMPOOL_SIZE) * 1000000).GetFeePerK(); if (minPoolFee > 0 && minPoolFee > median) return CFeeRate(minPoolFee); if (median < 0) return CFeeRate(0); return CFeeRate(median); } double CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimatePriority(int confTarget) { return -1; } double CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartPriority(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool) { if (answerFoundAtTarget) *answerFoundAtTarget = confTarget; // If mempool is limiting txs, no priority txs are allowed CAmount minPoolFee = pool.GetMinFee(GetArg("-maxmempool", DEFAULT_MAX_MEMPOOL_SIZE) * 1000000).GetFeePerK(); if (minPoolFee > 0) return INF_PRIORITY; return -1; } void CBlockPolicyEstimator::Write(CAutoFile& fileout) { fileout << nBestSeenHeight; feeStats.Write(fileout); } void CBlockPolicyEstimator::Read(CAutoFile& filein, int nFileVersion) { int nFileBestSeenHeight; filein >> nFileBestSeenHeight; feeStats.Read(filein); nBestSeenHeight = nFileBestSeenHeight; if (nFileVersion < 139900) { TxConfirmStats priStats; priStats.Read(filein); } } FeeFilterRounder::FeeFilterRounder(const CFeeRate& minIncrementalFee) { CAmount minFeeLimit = std::max(CAmount(1), minIncrementalFee.GetFeePerK() / 2); feeset.insert(0); for (double bucketBoundary = minFeeLimit; bucketBoundary <= MAX_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_SPACING) { feeset.insert(bucketBoundary); } } CAmount FeeFilterRounder::round(CAmount currentMinFee) { std::set::iterator it = feeset.lower_bound(currentMinFee); if ((it != feeset.begin() && insecure_rand.rand32() % 3 != 0) || it == feeset.end()) { it--; } return *it; }