For the per confirmation number tracking of data, introduce a scale factor so that in the longer horizones confirmations are bucketed together at a resolution of the scale. (instead of 1008 individual data points for each fee bucket, have 42 data points each covering 24 different confirmation values.. (1-24), (25-48), etc.. )
Change the logic of estimateSmartFee to check a 60% threshold at half the target, a 85% threshold at the target and a 95% threshold at double the target. Always check the shortest time horizon possible and ensure that estimates are monotonically decreasing. Add a conservative mode, which makes sure that the 95% threshold is also met at longer time horizons as well.
Compute the value of inputs that already are in the chain at time of mempool entry and only increase priority due to aging for those inputs. This effectively changes the CTxMemPoolEntry's GetPriority calculation from an upper bound to a lower bound.
This provides more conservative estimates and reacts more quickly to a backlog.
Unfortunately the unit test for fee estimation depends on the success threshold (and the decay) chosen; also modify the unit test for the new default success thresholds.
This class groups transactions that have been confirmed in blocks into buckets, based on either their fee or their priority. Then for each bucket, the class calculates what percentage of the transactions were confirmed within various numbers of blocks. It does this by keeping an exponentially decaying moving history for each bucket and confirm block count of the percentage of transactions in that bucket that were confirmed within that number of blocks.
-Eliminate txs which didn't have all inputs available at entry from fee/pri calcs
-Add dynamic breakpoints and tracking of confirmation delays in mempool transactions
-Remove old CMinerPolicyEstimator and CBlockAverage code
-New smartfees.py
-Pass a flag to the estimation code, using IsInitialBlockDownload as a proxy for when we are still catching up and we shouldn't be counting how many blocks it takes for transactions to be included.
-Add a policyestimator unit test
